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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.