The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.